Everybody is hearing mixed messages on the current real estate market and is wondering what the outlook of this year will bring.  If you’re listening to the news on a national level, you will hear a variety of coverage of how excellent or terrible the market looks.  Right now, the market is shaky- good in places, bad in others- so it’s vital to watch the market at a local area.  Do not be swayed by the national opinion of the real estate market because houses are selling here in northwest Arkansas. 

Included in this report is data taken from our local MLS database from the 12th of December of 2010 and data from the 12th of December of 2011.  From the comparison of these two snapshots, an assessment of the yearly change between the listings, the number of months supply, and new construction while be provided for the cities of Fayetteville, Farmington, Springdale, Lowell, Rogers, Bentonville, and Bella Vista.  Also within this report, significant changes in certain pricing categories will be supplied that showed substantial influence in each city.    

What is being measure?

Listings – a change between 2010’s and 2011’s houses on the market, also known as inventory, is provided.  A positive change usually indicates that inventory is increasing, and prices are decreasing.  On the other hand, a negative change usually indicates that inventory is decreasing and prices are increasing.  Changes in inventory within a certain price category have the greatest effect on price categories that are immediately less than or immediately greater than that category.  For example, a change in inventory in the pricing category of $100-149 will have a greater impact on the change in price and inventory within the pricing categories of $0-99 and $150-199.  Therefore, price categories such as $500-599 will have insignificant effect by these changes initially. 

Months Supply – a change between 2010’s and 2011’s number of months a house will remain on the market is given.  A positive change indicates an increase of time (in months) a house will remain on the market before it will sell.  A negative change indicates a decrease of time.  It is best to monitor specific price categories besides the overall average of each city to determine which housing prices are in high demand.  The most significant changes with each category have been provided.  Favorable significant changes have been highlighted in green; whereas, unfavorable changes are in red.

New Construction - a change between 2010’s and 2011’s number of new constructions have been included.  An increase in new construction is usually a reliable indicator of local economic growth, since many industries are involved during new construction.  A negative growth is to be expected in a recovering economy.

 

Fayetteville

 

Overlook

 

 

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

849

670

12.7

12

95

82

 

 

Change

-179

-0.7

-13

 

 

% Change

21%

6%

14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$100-149

$300-349

$350-399

$400-449

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

13.8

7.1

12.3

63

30

14.4

21

84

Change

-6.7

50.7

-15.6

63

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

 

 

Price Category

$600-699

$700-799

$800-899

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

Months Supply

12

31.5

12

39

84

9

 

 

Change

19.5

27

-75

 

 

 

Fayetteville barely improved its months supply overall.  Fortunately, months supply for $100-149 and $350-399 were almost cut in half.  For houses priced at $100-149, houses will now sell within seven months.  In 2010, it would have taken almost 14 months!  Houses priced at $800-899 did have an impressive difference of about six years.  Houses priced at $400-449 had a large increase of 63 months.  A strategic seller would drop their price within the $350-399 category.

Key Takeaways

  • Greatest change: $400-499 increased 63 months.
  • Fayetteville has the lowest months supply difference (-0.7).
  • Fayetteville has the lowest months supply percentage change (6%).
  • Fayetteville has the lowest percentage change decrease in new construction (14%).

 

Farmington

 

Overlook

 

 

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

100

53

20

8.8

6

2

 

 

Change

-47

-11.2

-4

 

 

% Change

47%

56%

67%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$100-149

$150-199

$200-249

$250-299

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

11.4

7.5

24

6

19.5

9

24

5

Change

-3.9

-18

-10.5

-19

 

Farmington did phenomenal this year.  Overall the month supply dropped 56%.  Houses that took 20 months to sell now only take about nine.  Hot price categories included $100-149, $150-199, $200-249, and $250-299.  Almost all these categories took over a year or two to sell last year, now only take a few months!

Key Takeaways

  • Greatest change: $250-299 decreased 19 months.
  • All significant changes decreased in months supply.
  • Farmington has the largest percentage change in listings (47%).
  • Farmington has the largest months supply difference (-11.2).
  • Farmington has the largest months supply percentage change (56%).
  • Farmington has the lowest decrease in new construction (-4).
  • Farmington has the largest percentage change decrease in new construction (67%).

 

Springdale

 

Overlook

 

 

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

763

493

11.6

6.6

55

20

 

 

Change

-270

-5

-35

 

 

% Change

35%

43%

64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$0-99

$100-149

$250-299

$300-349

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

8.5

3.4

13.8

7.1

16.7

24.6

51

84

Change

-5.1

-6.7

7.9

33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

 

 

Price Category

$400-449

$450-499

$550-599

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

Months Supply

36

24

51

84

84

9

 

 

Change

-12

33

-75

 

 

 

Considering how Springdale is the second largest city in Northwest Arkansas, a 35% change in listings is prominent.  The majority of this change came from houses priced at $0-99 with a five month supply change and $100-149 with a seven month supply change. High-end priced homes, such as $250-299 and $300-349, didn’t favor as well this year with an increase of an eight and a 33 month supply respectively.

Key Takeaways

  • Greatest change: $500-599 decreased 75 months.
  • Springdale has the largest change in listings (-270).
  • Springdale has the largest decrease in new construction (-35).

 

Lowell

 

Overlook

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

106

76

8.4

7.1

16

17

Change

-30

-1.3

1

% Change

28%

15%

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

 

 

 

 

Price Category

$200-249

 

 

 

 

Year

2010

2011

 

 

 

 

Months Supply

12.8

84

 

 

 

 

Change

71.2

 

 

 

 

 

Lowell’s real estate market showed little activity this year.  Listings dropped with a 28% change, but total months supply barely showed any significant signs of change.  Most notably, the price category of $200-249 had a significant increase of 71.2 month supply.

Key Takeaways

  • Lowell is one of two cities that increased in new construction.
  • Lowell has the largest percentage change increase in new construction (6%).
  • Lowell has the lowest change of listings (-30).

 

Rogers

 

Overlook

 

 

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

867

620

11.8

7.8

87

55

 

 

Change

-247

-4

-32

 

 

% Change

28%

34%

37%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$100-149

$200-249

$250-299

$400-449

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

14

6.6

16.3

8.4

11.6

22.9

15.8

4.7

Change

-7.4

-7.9

11.3

-11.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$450-499

$550-599

$600-699

$700-799

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

25.5

10

13.5

84

45

16.5

84

14

Change

-15.5

70.5

-28.5

-70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

 

 

 

 

Price Category

$800-899

$1,000+

 

 

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

 

Months Supply

45

15

18

36

 

 

 

 

Change

-30

18

 

 

 

 

 

Unlike Lowell, Rogers experienced ample real estate activity with the overall months supply decreasing 34%.  All significant price categories that had a decrease in months supply range from seven months to roughly six years.  Price categories such as $250-299, $550-599, and $1,000+ increased from 11.2 to 70.5 month supply.

Key Takeaways

  • Greatest change: $550-559 increased 70.5 months.

 

Bentonville

 

Overlook

 

 

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

503

298

12.2

6.2

111

117

 

 

Change

-205

-6

6

 

 

% Change

41%

49%

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$0-99

$100-149

$150-199

$200-249

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

9

4

11.1

6.2

13.3

5.5

13.1

4.7

Change

-5

-4.9

-7.8

-8.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$350-399

$450-499

$500-549

$550-599

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

57

6.8

19.5

6.6

27

8

3

9

Change

-50.2

-12.9

-19

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

 

 

Price Category

$600-699

$800-999

$1,000+

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

Months Supply

10.5

6

4

12

21

84

 

 

Change

-4.5

8

63

 

 

 

Much like Rogers, the real estate market was very active in Bentonville with a greater overall months supply change of 49%.  Bentonville shows favorable activity across the board amongst each price category, ranging from five months to four years!  The only significant downfalls were in the price categories of $550-599, $800-999, and $1,000+, ranging from six months to five years

Key Takeaways

  • Greatest change: $1,000+ increased 63 months.
  • Bentonville was one of two cities that increased in new construction.
  • Bentonville has the largest increase in new construction (6).

 

Bella Vista

 

Overlook

 

 

 

Listings

Months Supply

New Construction

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

634

544

13.8

9.6

19

7

 

 

Change

-90

-4.2

-12

 

 

% Change

14%

30%

63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

Price Category

$0-99

$100-149

$300-349

$350-399

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

Months Supply

9.8

6

14.8

8.4

18

6.8

13.5

84

Change

-3.8

-6.4

-11.2

70.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Changes

 

 

 

 

Price Category

$400-449

$550-599

 

 

 

 

Year

2010

2011

2010

2011

 

 

 

 

Months Supply

24

84

84

9

 

 

 

 

Change

60

-75

 

 

 

 

 

Bella Vista also did well this year with an overall months supply decrease of 30%.  Even though price categories such as $350-399 and $400-449 took a hit, $550-599 has the greatest decrease of about 6 years of months supplyLower price categories did exceptionally well with decreases ranging from about 4 months to almost a year.

Key Takeaways

  • Greatest change: $550-599 decreased 75 months.
  • Bella Vista has the lowest percentage change in listings (14%).